Migrantska kriza 2015. godine i posljedice "politike otvorenih vrata" Angele Merkel u Njemačkoj

master's thesis

• Title (english): Migrant crisis in 2015 and the consequences of Angela Merkel's "open door policy" in Germany
• Author: Kristina Vrbek
• Mentor: Vlatko Cvrtila (mentor)
• Committee member: Vlatko Cvrtila (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Robert Barić (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Siniša Tatalović (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; The Faculty of Political Science; (Department of International Relations and Security Studies); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2022-07-08, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: SOCIAL SCIENCES; Political Science

Abstract

Ovaj rad bavi se analizom političkih, ekonomskih, sigurnosnih i društvenih posljedica političkog poteza Angele Merkel pod nazivom „politika otvorenih vrata“. Svrha ovog rada je istražiti korelaciju demogeografskih podataka zabilježene migrantske populacije u razdoblju 2015. do 2019. godine na području Savezne Republike Njemačke (nadalje: Njemačke) sa političkim, društvenim, ekonomskim i sigurnosnim indeksima kako bi se jasnije ustvrdila prisutnost posljedica političkog poteza Angele Merkel tj. dopuštanja ulaska migrantima na teritorij Njemačke. Slijedom pronađenih podataka, istražit će se i segmentirati političke, ekonomske, društvene i sigurnosne posljedice na način da će svaki segment biti istraživan zasebno. Jedinica istraživanja je Savezna Republika Njemačka u vremenskom periodu od 2015. do 2019. godine. Za segment sigurnosnih posljedica, koristit će se indikatori ljudske sigurnosti radi prikaza stanja kriminaliteta i percepciju sigurnosti kroz istraživanja javnog mijenja. Istraživat će se i promjena strukture stanovništva i procese društvene integracije migranata kako bi se ustanovile društvene posljedice, dok će ekonomske posljedice biti istraživane kroz stopu zaposlenosti i razinu prosječne zarade izbjeglica i migranata u Njemačkoj. Isto tako, kritični unutarnji politički događaji koji su se zbili tijekom istraživanog razdoblja navesti će se kako bi objasnili političke posljedice.

Glavna hipoteza je da su posljedice „politike otvorenih vrata“ generalno pozitivne za njemačko društvo. Negativno se odrazilo na pad podrške dotad vladajuće koalicije CSU/CDU zbog čega su prosperirali desničarski populisti AfD. Ekonomske posljedice integracije migranata su generalno pozitivne, ali nužno je poraditi na opsežnijoj i bržoj integraciji migranata i izbjeglica u ekonomski sustav i tržište rada. Društvene posljedice su uvelike pozitivne kroz razvoj daljnjeg multikulturalizma, a politička i društvena inkluzivnost migranata i izbjeglica u Njemačkoj je zajamčena i prisutna. Sigurnosne posljedice su bile vidljive i prisutne u porastu stope ubojstava za 2016. godinu te u porastu broja zadržanih osoba u pritvoru. Navedeno se i poklapa sa padom percepcije građana o povjerenju u nacionalne institucije i EU. Analizom pronađenih relevantnih podataka i izvora uspješno smo odgovorili na navedena istraživačka pitanja i time ispitali gore navedenu hipotezu.

Abstract (english)

This paper deals with the analysis of the political, economic, security and social consequences of Angela Merkel's political move entitled "Open Door Policy". The purpose of this paper is to investigate the correlation of demographic data of the recorded migrant population in the period 2015 to 2019 in the Federal Republic of Germany (here in after: Germany) with political, social, economic and security indices to more clearly establish the presence of Angela Merkel's political move, allowing migrants to enter German territory. Based on the data found, the political, economic, social and security consequences will be investigated and segmented in such a way that each segment will be investigated separately. The research unit is the Federal Republic of Germany in the period from 2015 to 2019. For the security implications segment, human security indicators will be used to show the state of crime and the perception of security through opinion polls. Changes in population structure and social integration processes of migrants will also be explored in order to establish social consequences, while economic consequences will be explored through the employment rate and the level of average earnings of refugees and migrants in Germany. Likewise, critical internal political events that occurred during the period under study will be cited to explain the political implications.

The main hypothesis is that the consequences of "Open Door Policy" are generally positive for German society. It had a negative effect on the decline in the support of the then ruling coalition CSU / CDU, which is why the right-wing populists AfD prospered. The economic consequences of the integration of migrants are generally positive, but it is necessary to work on a more extensive and faster integration of migrants and refugees into the economic system and the labor market. The social consequences are largely positive through the development of further multiculturalism, and the political and social inclusion of migrants and refugees in Germany is guaranteed and present. The security consequences were visible and present in the increase in the homicide rate for 2016 and in the increase in the number of detainees. This coincides with the decline in citizens' perceptions of trust in national institutions and the EU. By analyzing the found relevant data and sources, we successfully answered the above research questions and thus tested the above hypothesis.

• Keywords: migracije; migrantska kriza; Njemačka; politika otvorenih vrata; posljedice
• Keywords (english): migration; migrant crisis; Germany; open door policy; consequences
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:114:679896
• Study programme: Title: Political Science - National security; specializations in: National security; Course: National security; Study programme type: university; Study level: graduate; Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra politologije (magistar/magistra politologije)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Access restricted to authenticated users
• Created on: 2022-08-10 08:32:54