Trumpov efekt? Analiza sociodemografskih karakteristika birača na republikanskim predizborima 2016.

master's thesis

• Title (english): Trump's Effect? An Analysis of Socio- demographic Characteristics of Voters in the 2016 Republican Primaries
• Author: Bruno Roglić
• Mentor: Dario Nikić Čakar (mentor)
• Committee member: Dario Nikić Čakar (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Boris Havel (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Višeslav Raos (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; The Faculty of Political Science; Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2020-06-30, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: SOCIAL SCIENCES; Political Science

Abstract

U ovom radu nastojim ispitati postoji li Trumpov efekt koji ga je doveo do republikanske nominacije 2016. godine, odnosno analiziram sociodemografske karakteristike birača na republikanskim predizborima. Osnovna teza rada je da postoje određene poveznice u sociodemografskim karakteristikama među Trumpovim biračima koje su ga dovele do pobjede te da je uspio okupiti birače razočarane Republikanskom strankom i njenim mainstream kandidatima. Donald Trump uspio je iznenaditi sve koji su se samo godinu ili dvije prije samih izbora smijali njegovoj kandidaturi te uvjerljivo osvojiti republikansku nominaciju 2016. godine, a potom je otišao korak dalje te porazio kandidatkinju Demokratske stranke, Hillary Clinton i tako postao 45. američki predsjednik. U radu je predstavljena institucija američkih predizbora, povijest Republikanske stranke i background Donalda Trumpa. Analizom izlaznih anketa u 27 saveznih država na republikanskim predizborima, došao sam do zaključka da ne postoje značajne poveznice među sociodemografskim karakteristikama birača koje su Trumpa dovele do pobjede, već je osvojio značajnu većinu među svim društvenim skupinama najviše zahvaljujući uspješnom kampanjom.

Abstract (english)

In this paper, I seek to examine whether there is a Trump effect that led him to the Republican nomination in 2016., also analyzing sociodemographic characteristics in the Republican primary. The basic thesis of the paper is that there are certain links in sociodemographic characteristics among Trump voters that led him to victory and that he managed to gather voters disappointed with the Republican Party and its mainstream candidates. Donald Trump managed to surprise everyone who laughed at his candidacy just a year or two before the election and convincingly won the Republican nomination in 2016, then went a step further and defeated the Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton and thus became the 45th American president. The paper presents the institution of American primaries, the history of the Republican Party, and Donald Trump's background. By analyzing exit polls in 27 states in the Republican primary, I came to the conclusion that there are no significant links among the sociodemographic characteristics of voters that led Trump to victory, but he won a significant majority among all social groups largely thanks to a successful campaign.

• Keywords: Donald Trump; Republikanska stranka; predizbori; sociodemografske karakteristike; izlazne ankete.
• Keywords (english): Donald Trump; Republican Party; primaries; sociodemographic characteristics; exit-polls.
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:114:592085
• Study programme: Title: Political Science; Study programme type: university; Study level: graduate; Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra politologije (magistar/magistra politologije)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Open access
• Created on: 2020-11-17 08:57:35