The Increasing Importance of OSINT as a Source of Intelligence

master's thesis

• Author: Tin Potz
• Mentor: Robert Barić (mentor)
• Committee member: Robert Barić (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Siniša Tatalović (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Boško Picula (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; The Faculty of Political Science; (Department of International Relations and Security Studies); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2021-07-13, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: SOCIAL SCIENCES; Political Science

Abstract

Intelligence agencies have been using open sources since WWII, but the intelligence made of such sources (OSINT) was always considered second-class. It was mostly so because secrets were always regarded as more valuable. Today, due to the new digital and more public way of life, the value of OSINT has been reassessed. Another reason for the change of view comes with the modern concept of security which encompasses threats that can only be addressed by a fusion of all sources. Therefore, all-source analysis with a multidisciplinary approach may be the only way to resolve wicked national security problems. OSINT, thus, in combination with technology (computers), becomes a useful tool that enriches the intelligence analysis. The paper focuses on determining whether the importance of OSINT is increasing by analyzing OSINT through its five modern dimensions. In every dimension, the positive and the negative aspects are compared, creating a picture of the relative value of today's OSINT. Those five dimensions are the Internet as a source, privatization of intelligence, forecasting, high-tech solutions, and responsibility. The research confirms the increasing importance of OSINT. Since OSINT is not given enough attention in intelligence communities, this topic will stay important in the foreseeable future.

Abstract (croatian)

Obavještajne službe koriste otvorene izvore još od Drugog svjetskog rata, ali obavještajni proizvodi takvih izvora (OSINT) su uvijek bili smatrani drugorazrednima. To je uglavnom tako jer su se tajne uvijek smatrale vrjednijima. Danas, uslijed novog digitalnog i sve više javnijeg načina života, vrijednost OSINT-a se ponovno razmatra. Takva promjena u pogledu dolazi i zbog moderne koncepcije sigurnosti koja uključuje prijetnje na koje se može odgovoriti samo fuzijom svih mogućih izvora. Stoga, analiza svih izvora, kao i multidisciplinarni pristup, možda je jedini način za rješavanje naizgled nerješivih (wicked) problema nacionalne sigurnosti. OSINT tako, u kombinaciji s tehnologijom (kompjuterima), postaje sredstvo obogaćivanja obavještajne analize. U radu se pokušava utvrditi postoji li rastući značaj obavještajne informacije temeljene na javnim izvorima, tako što se OSINT analizira kroz njegovih pet dimenzija. U svakoj dimenziji uspoređuju se pozitivni i negativni aspekti, stvarajući sliku relativne dodane vrijednosti suvremenog OSINT-a. Tih pet dimenzija su: internet kao izvor, privatizacija obavještajne djelatnosti, predviđanje, visoko-tehnološka rješenja i odgovornost. Istraživanje potvrđuje rast značaja OSINT-a. Pošto se OSINT-u još uvijek ne pridaje dovoljno pozornosti u obavještajnim zajednicama, ova tema ostat će važna u doglednoj budućnosti.

• Keywords: open sources; OSINT; intelligence agencies; social network analysis; Internet
• Keywords (croatian): otvoreni izvori; OSINT; obavještajne službe; analiza društvenih mreža; internet
• Language: english
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:114:806851
• Study programme: Title: Political Science - National security; specializations in: National security; Course: National security; Study programme type: university; Study level: graduate; Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra politologije (magistar/magistra politologije)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Open access
• Created on: 2022-01-17 13:04:44