Ekonomski (ne)uspjeh kao razlog kraja autoritarnih režima

master's thesis

• Title (english): Economic (lack of) success as a reason for the downfall of authoritarian regimes
• Author: Karla Žeželić
• Mentor: Višeslav Raos (mentor)
• Committee member: Nenad Zakošek (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Višeslav Raos (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Andrija Henjak (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; The Faculty of Political Science; Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2023-09-13, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: SOCIAL SCIENCES; Political Science

Abstract

Dosadašnja istraživanja ukazala su da veći dohodak po stanovniku povećava šanse za uspostavu demokracije i podriva daljnje održavanje autoritarnih režima. Mnogi autori različitim kontekstualnim čimbenicima pripisuju, uz dohodak po stanovniku, različitu težinu utjecaja na demokratizaciju – dok jedni ističu obrazovanje, drugi se pozivaju na građanski rat i jednakost dohotka. Ovaj rad uvaža zaključke prethodnih autora te u model logističke regresije uvrštava niz prediktora ne bi li ustvrdio je li ekonomski razvoj primarni prediktor demokracije te razlikuje li se taj efekt s obzirom na regiju i vrstu ideologije. Jednako tako, nastoji ustvrditi jediničnu vrijednost minimalne donje granice dohotka po stanovniku koji potiče demokratizacijski proces autoritarnih režima. Marginalni prikaz efekta BDP-a pokazuje da nedemokratski režimi u trenutku kada postignu 30 000 američkih dolara dohotka po stanovniku, vrlo će vjerojatno otpočeti proces demokratske tranzicije. Na višim razinama BDP-a taj efekt se gubi. Kod prihoda od prirodnih resursa uočeno je da nemaju nikakav utjecaj na vjerojatnost demokratizacije, sugerirajući promjenu narativa po pitanju demokratizacije u zemljama bogatim prirodnim resursima. S druge strane, najznačajniji prediktori demokratizacije pokazali su se disperzija političke moći i niže stope urbanizacije.

Abstract (english)

Previous research has shown that higher per capita income increases the chances of establishing democracy and undermines the further maintenance of authoritarian regimes. Many authors attribute different contextual factors, in addition to per capita income, to the impact of democratization while some em phasize education, others refer to civil war and income equality. This paper takes into account the conclusions of previous authors and includes a series of predictors in the model of logistic regression in order to determine whether economic development is the primary predictor of democracy and whether this effect differs with respect to the region and type of ideology. Equally, it seeks to establish the minimum limit of per capita income that encourages the democratization process of authoritarian regimes. A marginal representation of GDP effects shows that undemocratic regimes, once they reach $30,000 in per capita income, are very likely to begin a process of democratic transition. At higher levels of GDP, this effect is lost. With natural resource revenues, it was observed that they had no impact on the likelihood of democratization, suggesting a change in the narrative regarding democratization in countries rich in natural resources. On the other hand, the most significant predictors of democratization are dispersion of political power and lower urbanization rates.

• Keywords: autoritarni režimi; demokratska tranzicija; demokratizacija; dohodak po stanovniku
• Keywords (english): authoritarian regimes; democratic transition; democratization; per capita income
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:114:306714
• Study programme: Title: Political Science; Study programme type: university; Study level: graduate; Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra politologije (magistar/magistra politologije)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Open access
• Created on: 2023-10-09 11:06:52