Analiza obavještajne pogreške: Izbijanje pandemije COVID-19

master's thesis

• Title (english): Analysis of Intelligence Failure: The outbreak of Covid-19 pandemic
• Author: Ivan Majnarić
• Mentor: Robert Barić (mentor)
• Committee member: Robert Barić (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Petar Popović (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Dejan Jović (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; The Faculty of Political Science; Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2023-09-21, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: SOCIAL SCIENCES; Political Science

Abstract

U radu se razmatra obavještajna pogreška do koje je došlo tijekom izbijanja pandemije Covid-19. Pregledom literature je ustanovljeno da su ključni zadaci obavještajne zajednice prilikom izbijanja zaraznih bolesti rano otkrivanje i upozorenje, kao i analiza ponašanja država u kojima je došlo do izbijanja pandemije. Obavještajna zajednica uspoređuje službene izjave koje izdaju pogođene države sa informacijama koje su dobivene vlastitim metodama prikupljanja. Na taj način se najbolje može procijeniti stvarna ozbiljnost problema, te razina transparentnosti pogođene države. Rad analizira djelovanje obavještajne zajednice i političkog vodstva SAD-a u periodu između prosinca 2019. i ožujka 2020. godine što odgovara razdoblju od pojave prvih informacija o izbijanju tada neidentificirane bolesti do proglašenja pandemije od strane Svjetske zdravstvene organizacije. Obavještajna pogreška se analizira s aspekta političkog vodstva, izdanih upozorenja, organizacijskih prepreka i analitičkih izazova. Zaključak rada je da iako su utvrđeni određeni nedostaci u organizaciji i djelovanju obavještajne zajednice, do obavještajne pogreške je došlo zbog ignoriranja upozorenja, te izostanka reakcije od strane političkog vrha. Obavještajna zajednica je dovoljno rano u razvoju bolesti upozorila na prijetnju. Ključni problem predstavlja to što izvještaji obavještajne zajednice nisu imali utjecaj na donositelje odluka.

Abstract (english)

The paper examines an intelligence failure that occurred during the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic. Through a literature review, it has been determined that the role of the intelligence community during the emergence of infectious diseases involves early detection and warning, as well as analyzing the behavior of states where pandemics have occurred. The intelligence community compares official statements issued by affected states with information obtained through its own collection methods. This approach best allows for assessing the true severity of the problem and the transparency of the affected state. The paper analyzes the actions of the intelligence community and the political leadership of the United States between December 2019 and March 2020, corresponding to the period from the first emergence of information about an unidentified disease to the declaration of a pandemic by the World Health Organization. The intelligence failure is examined from the perspective of political leadership, issued warnings, organizational barriers, and analytical challenges. The conclusion of the paper is that, although certain deficiencies in the organization and functioning of the intelligence community were identified, the intelligence failure occurred due to the disregard of warnings and the absence of reaction from the political leadership. The intelligence community sufficiently early warned about the threat posed by the disease. The key issue lies in the fact that the reports of the intelligence community did not have an impact on decision-makers.

• Keywords: pandemija COVID-19; obavještajna zajednica; obavještajna pogreška; nacionalna sigurnost; globalne zdravstvene prijetnje
• Keywords (english): COVID-19 pandemic; intelligence community; intelligence failure; national security; global health threats
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:114:017997
• Study programme: Title: Political Science - National security; specializations in: National security; Course: National security; Study programme type: university; Study level: graduate; Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra politologije (magistar/magistra politologije)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Open access; Embargo expiration date: 2024-01-31
• Created on: 2023-10-25 11:39:23