Triangularna politika oko statusa Tajvana

professional thesis

• Title: Triangularna politika oko statusa Tajvana : održavanje ili promjena statusa quo?
• Title (english): Triangular policy on Taiwan issue : keeping or changing the status quo?
• Author: Stjepan Kichaz
• Mentor: Đana Luša (mentor)
• Committee member: Đana Luša (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Boško Picula (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Vlatko Cvrtila (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; The Faculty of Political Science; Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2024-01-31, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: SOCIAL SCIENCES; Political Science

Abstract

Trenutno "mirno" stanje u Tajvanskom tjesnacu održava se uglavnom kroz politiku odvraćanja i uvjeravanja Sjedinjenih Američkih Država. Eventualni rat između SAD-a i Kine zbog Tajvana donio bi katastrofalne posljedice, te je očuvanje mira i sigurnosti u Tajvanskom tjesnacu stoga je ključno za sve zainteresirane strane. Politika odvraćanja i uvjeravanja SAD-a služi održavanju statusa quo "mira" tako što odvraća Kinu od napada na Tajvan, uz istovremeno jamstvo Kini da SAD neće podržati neovisnost Tajvana.
Ipak, status quo koji čuva "mir" u Tajvanskom tjesnacu mijenja se zbog tri ključna faktora:
(1) Agresivan stav Kine u Tajvanskom tjesnacu od sredine 2010-ih, temeljen na principu "Jedne Kine" i povećanim ekonomskim i vojnim sposobnostima za prisvajanje Tajvana silom;
(2) Rastući osjećaj samoodređenja Tajvana koji može dovesti do pokreta prema službenoj neovisnosti;
(3) Postupna promjena dugogodišnje posvećenosti SAD-a statusu quo u Tajvanskom tjesnacu, reagirajući na prethodno navedena dva faktora.
Da bi očuvale status quo "mira", SAD moraju prilagoditi zastarjelu politiku angažmana prema Kini jačom politikom odvraćanja u Tajvanskom tjesnacu. Također, potrebna je čvršća politika jamstva kako bi se uvjerila Kina da SAD ne razmatra podržati neovisnost Tajvana. Zbog promjene intervenirajućih varijabli teško je doći do kompromisa koji će izgraditi dugotrajni miru u Tajvanskom tjesnacu.

Abstract (english)

The current "peaceful" situation in the Taiwan Strait is primarily maintained through the policy of deterrence and assurance by the United States. A potential war between the U.S. and China over Taiwan would bring catastrophic consequences, emphasizing the crucial importance of preserving peace and security in the Taiwan Strait for all stakeholders. The U.S. policy of deterrence and assurance aims to uphold the status quo of "peace" by deterring China from attacking Taiwan unprovoked while assuring China that the U.S. does not support Taiwan's independence.
However, the status quo preserving "peace" in the Taiwan Strait is undergoing changes due to three key factors:
(1) China's increasingly aggressive stance in the Taiwan Strait since the mid-2010s, based on the "One China" principle and enhanced economic and military capabilities to forcibly annex Taiwan;
(2) Taiwan's growing sense of self-determination that may lead to movements toward official independence;
(3) The gradual shift in the long-standing commitment of the U.S. to the status quo in the Taiwan Strait, reacting to the aforementioned factors.
To maintain the status quo of "peace," the U.S. must adjust its outdated engagement policy towards China with a stronger deterrence policy in the Taiwan Strait, effectively deterring China. Additionally, a firmer assurance policy is needed to convince China that the U.S. does not consider supporting Taiwan's independence. Due to changing variables, reaching a compromise for building lasting peace in the Taiwan Strait becomes challenging.

• Keywords: Triangularna politika; Sjedinjene Američke Države; Narodna Republika Kina; Tajvan; status quo „mira“; Tajvanski tjesnac; politika odvraćanja i uvjeravanja; agresivan stav; osjećaj samoodređenja
• Keywords (english): Triangular policy; United States of America; People's Republic of China; Taiwan; status quo "peace; " Taiwan Strait; policy of deterrence and assurance; aggressive stance; sense of self-determination
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:114:901181
• Study programme: Title: Foreign Politics and Diplomacy; Study programme type: university; Study level: postgraduate specialist; Academic / professional title: sveučilišni/a specijalist/specijalistica za vanjsku politiku i diplomaciju (sveučilišni/a specijalist/specijalistica za vanjsku politiku i diplomaciju)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Open access
• Created on: 2024-02-23 13:15:45