Vanjska politika Ruske Federacije i sukob u istočnoj Ukrajini (2014.-2022.)

professional thesis

• Title (english): Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation and the Conflict in Eastern Ukraine (2014-2022)
• Author: Bruno Rukavina
• Mentor: Boško Picula (mentor)
• Committee member: Đana Luša (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Jadranka Polović (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Boško Picula (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; The Faculty of Political Science; Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2024-10-29, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: SOCIAL SCIENCES; Political Science

Abstract

Završni specijalistički rad istražuje vanjsku politiku Ruske Federacije i sukob u istočnoj Ukrajini. Glavni cilj istraživanja je utvrditi koliki je bio intenzitet sukoba u istočnoj Ukrajini u razdoblju od 15 mjeseci (od prosinca 2020. godine do veljače 2022. godine) i kakva je sukladno tomu bila vanjska (i sigurnosna) politika Ruske Federacije. Intenzitet sukoba u istočnoj Ukrajini utvrdio se kvantitativnom analizom proučavanjem 383 Dnevna izvještaja Posebne promatračke misije Organizacije za europsku sigurnost i suradnju iz koje se iščitao broj prekršaja Sporazuma iz Minska i izračunalo dugotrajno kretanje intenziteta sukoba u istočnoj Ukrajini. Nakon toga se kvalitativnom metodom istraživala vanjska (i sigurnosna) politika Ruske Federacije prema sukobu u istočnoj Ukrajini s naglaskom na period od prosinca 2020. do veljače 2022. godine. Istraživanje je dokazalo da tri vala povećanja intenziteta sukoba u istočnoj Ukrajini, u travnju i studenom 2021. godine i veljači 2022. godine (neovisna varijabla), uzrokuju povećanu razinu ruskih vanjskopolitičkih (i sigurnosnih) aktivnosti (ovisnu varijablu). Završni specijalistički rad zaključuje da povećan intenzitet sukoba u istočnoj Ukrajini u veljači 2022. godine (treće povećanje u 10 mjeseci) predstavlja povod za Specijalnu vojnu operaciju (po ruskom narativu) ili invaziju na Ukrajinu (po zapadnom narativu) i da je vrlo teško tvrditi kako je Operacija/invazija bila neprovocirana.

Abstract (english)

The final specialist paper researches the foreign policy of the Russian Federation and the conflict in eastern Ukraine. The main goal of the research is to detect the intensity of the conflict in eastern Ukraine over a period of 15 months (from December 2020 to February 2022) and what were accordingly activities of the foreign (and security) policy of the Russian Federation. The intensity of the conflict in eastern Ukraine was determined through a quantitative analysis by studying 383 Daily Reports of the Special Monitoring Mission of the Organization for European Security and Cooperation, from which the number of violations of the Minsk Agreement was read, and the long-term trend of the intensity of the conflict in eastern Ukraine was calculated. After that, the foreign (and security) policy of the Russian Federation towards the conflict in eastern Ukraine was researched using a qualitative method, focusing on the period from December 2020 to February 2022. The research proved that three waves of increasing conflict intensity in eastern Ukraine in April and November 2021 and February 2022 (independent variable), caused an increased level of Russian foreign policy (and security) activities (dependent variable). The final specialist paper concludes that the increased intensity of the conflict in the eastern Ukraine in February 2022 (the third increase in 10 months) represents the outbreak of the Special Military Operation (according to the Russian narrative) or an invasion of Ukraine (according to the Western narrative) and it is very difficult to argue that Operation/invasion was unprovoked.

• Keywords: Ruska Federacija; vanjska politika; diplomacija; sigurnosna politika; Ukrajina; Sporazum iz Minska; Vladimir Putin; Posebna promatračka misija OESS-a
• Keywords (english): Russian Federation; foreign policy; diplomacy; security policy; Ukraine; Minsk Agreement; Vladimir Putin; OSCE Special Monitoring Mission
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:114:052724
• Study programme: Title: Foreign Politics and Diplomacy; Study programme type: university; Study level: postgraduate specialist; Academic / professional title: sveučilišni/a specijalist/specijalistica za vanjsku politiku i diplomaciju (sveučilišni/a specijalist/specijalistica za vanjsku politiku i diplomaciju)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Open access
• Created on: 2024-10-30 13:15:53