| Abstract | Šok terapija sveobuhvatni je ekonomski instrument za kojim se posezalo i u autoritarnim porecima i u demokracijama, u trenucima visoke ekonomske neizvjesnosti uzrokovane neizdrživim proračunskim deficitima, kritičnom razinom državnoga duga i visokom inflacijom, nerijetko i hiperinflacijom. Ne postoji univerzalni recept za istu, radi se o načelnom skupu politika temeljenom na tri glavne: liberalizacija, stabilizacija i privatizacija, pri čemu je najčešće treća predmetom prijepora u centrističkoj intelektualnoj javnosti. Balcerovičev plan, kao kodifikacija najuspješnije šok terapije, u sebi uključuje i četvrtu komponentu – mreže socijalne sigurnosti. U radu se detaljno analizira najneuspješniju šok terapiju, rusku, uz identifikaciju ključnih razlika u odnosu na onu najuspješniju, poljsku. Pokazuje se da sam instrument ne snosi nikakvu krivnju za neuspjeh, da je u ono malo domena u kojima je, u granično nemogućim uvjetima, dosljedno primijenjen - postigao neke mikro-uspjehe. Kao glavni uzrok neuspjeha identificira se svemoćna struktura, koja je preživjela urušavanje SSSR-a, a potom i politička i ljudska impotencija Borisa Jeljcina, te nepropisno međunarodno ophođenje prema mladoj državi. Pritom ne izvodim generički zaključak da je trebalo postupati gradualistički, naprotiv, serijom retoričkih pitanja ukazujem na to što bi gradualizam u danom kontekstu bio. Ključno bogatstvo rada su terminološka preciznost i disciplina, nehisterični pristup i shvaćanje nužnosti optimalnoga uparivanja tržišnoga sa institucionalnim, političko-participativnim. |
| Abstract (english) | Shock therapy is an economic tool which was implemented in democracies, as well under authoritarian rule, in times of grave economic peril caused by insufferable budget deficits, a critical level of state debt and high inflation (often hyperinflation). There’s no universal recipe for shock therapy, it’s a principle-oriented set of policies that lies on three main pillars: liberalization, stabilization and privatization. The third, privatization, is often a matter of heated intellectual discussion. Balcerowicz’s plan, a codification of what is considered the best shock therapy ever implemented, explicitly mentions the fourth element: social safety net enforcement and reinforcement. A detailed analysis of what is considered the worst shock therapy ever (Russian) is presented, and then compared to the Polish one in key elements. It is shown that the instrument alone has little blame for the negative outcome, it even had micro-success in the domains in which it was thoroughly implemented. The old structure stemming from the Soviet times, that survived the collapse of communism, paired with Yeltsin’s political and moral impotence, with the absence of proper international support as the final ingredient – is identified as the main culprit for failure. By no chance am I drawing the conclusion that instead of shock therapy gradualism policies had to be implemented, on the contrary, with a series of rhetorical question I’m describing what gradualism would sum up to in circumstances involved. The main feature of the thesis is terminological preciseness, a non-hysteric approach and the awareness of the necessity of an optimal transition-pairing of the market element with the institutional, political-participatory one. |
