Analiza uspjeha neovisnih aktera na lokalnim izborima kao prediktora uspjeha Mosta

master's thesis

• Title (english): An Analysis of Independent Actors at Local elections as a Predictor of the Success of the Most of independent Lists
• Author: Pavla Mandić
• Mentor: Višeslav Raos (mentor)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; The Faculty of Political Science; (Department of Croatian Politics); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2018-09-27, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: SOCIAL SCIENCES; Political Science; Croatian Policy/Policy of the European Union

Abstract

Rad analizira lokalnu i nacionalnu razinu izbora u Hrvatskoj te se pokušava se odgovoriti na pitanje: je li se mogao predvidjeti uspjeh stranke Mosta nezavisnih lista na parlamentarnim izborima 2015. godine? Ti parlamentarni izbori su bili izbori na kojima je Most prvi put sudjelovao kao politička opcija, ali ujedno su to bili i prvi izbori na kojima su obe, do tada dominantne stranke, bile u pat-poziciji. Most je s osvojenih 19 mandata postao važan politički akter te nužan faktor za sastavljanje vlade. Rad je analiza mogućih prediktora uspjeha stranke Most na izborima 2015. godine. Naklonost birača neovisnim listama na lokalnim izborima održanim 2013. i biračka dob se sagledavaju kao potencijalni pokazatelji ovakvog ishoda parlamentarnih izbora. Provedena je linearna regresijska analiza koja pokušava otkriti povezanost između ova dva elementa te uspjeha Mosta na nacionalnoj političkoj sceni. Rezultati pokazuju da, iako postoji određena povezanost između prediktora i ishoda, ovakav politički fenomen zahtijeva puno složeniju analizu, budući da su predloženi prediktori objasnili tek djelić varijance postotka glasova za Most na izborima 2015. godine.

Abstract (english)

This thesis is an analysis of both the local and national electoral levels in Croatia. It tries to answer the following question: Could we predict the success of the Bridge of Independent Lists at the 2015 parliamentary election? This parliamentary election was the first one at which Most took part, but it was also the first election where the two dominant parties ended in a stalemate position. The Bridge, which won 19 seats, became a very significant political actor and a necessary element for government formation. The thesis analyses possible predictors of success of the Bridge of Independent Lists. Voters that gave their votes to independents lists at the 2013 local election and voter age are considered as potential indicators of the results of the 2015 parliamentary election. A linear regression analysis tried to discover the connection between these predictors and the outcome. The results show that this political phenomenon requires a more complex analysis, as the suggested predictors explained only a fraction of the variance of the vote percentage for the Bridge at the 2015 election

• Keywords: parlamentarni izbori; lokalni izbori; Most; mladi birači; neovisne liste; linearna regresija
• Keywords (english): parliamentary election; local election; Bridge of Independent Lists; young voters; independent list; linear regression
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:114:329746
• Study programme: Title: Political Science; Study programme type: university; Study level: graduate; Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra politologije (magistar/magistra politologije)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Access restricted to students and staff of home institution
• Created on: 2018-11-29 10:16:00