Komparativna analiza utjecaja metoda najvećeg broja na izborni ishod: simulacijska studija slučaja Hrvatske

master's thesis

• Title (english): A Comparative Analysis of the Influence of Highest Average Methods on Election Results: A Simulation Case Study of Croatia
• Author: Matej Sever
• Mentor: Višeslav Raos (mentor)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; The Faculty of Political Science; (Department of Comparative Politics); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2017-09-11, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: SOCIAL SCIENCES; Political Science; Comparative Political Science

Abstract

Iako je važnost izbora za demokraciju neupitna, savršen izborni sustav ne postoji. Različite vrste izbornih sustava pokušavaju preslikati sliku društva u zakonodavna i izvršna tijela no, istovremeno, njihovi su politički učinci jednako različiti te, vrlo često, na meti kritika. Tako je temeljni cilj rada istražiti političke učinke elementa izbornog sustava Hrvatske u vezi kojeg se nezadovoljstvo iskazuje nakon svake izborne godine, a najvećim se krivcem redovito smatra Victor D'Hondt, tj. njegova metoda pretvaranja glasova u mandate. Na temeljno istraživačko pitanje rada (Koliko je Victor d'Hondt zapravo kriv? - kriv u smislu odnošenja prema razini razmjernosti) odgovor je ponuđen u obliku simulacijske analize parlamentarnih izbora u Hrvatskoj od 2000. do 2016. godine gdje se, pomoću stvarno izraženih glasova birača, uspoređuju izborni rezultati dobiveni D'Hondtovom metodom pretvaranja glasova u mandate te izborni rezultati dobiveni korištenjem Sainte-Laguëove i modificirane Sainte-Laguëove metode (metode smatranima najrazmjernijima). Također, pomoću stvarno izraženih glasova birača na parlamentarnim izborima od 2000. do 2016. godine ponuđena je simulacijska analiza izbora prema modelu cijela zemlja jedna izborna jedinica (at-large sustav). Nakon prikaza simulacijskih analiza te sagledavanja Gallagherovog indeksa nerazmjernosti, zaključuje se kako ne postoji dovoljno snažna potreba za promjenom postojeće metode pretvaranja glasova u mandate (iako razina razmjernosti bila minimalno povećana), te se upućuje na promašenost zahtijeva za organizacijom cjelokupnog područja Hrvatske u jednu, objedinjenu izbornu jedinicu. Na kraju, ponuđene su smjernice za potencijalne promjene izbornog sustava koje su vezane uz ostale elemente izbornog zakonodavstva Hrvatske – ponajviše uz cjelokupnu izmjenu izbornih jedinica te dodatnog unaprjeđenja preferencijskoga glasovanja.

Abstract (english)

Even though the importance of elections for a democracy is unquestionable, a perfect electoral system does not exist. Diverse types of electoral systems try to mirror society in the legislative and executive bodies which produce very different and unpredictable political effects and are often criticized for that reason. The main goal of this paper is to explore the political effect of the most controversial element of the Croatian electoral system that is being revisited after each election – transferring votes into seats. It is interesting to see that Victor D'Hondt, the creator of the system of transferring votes into seats that Croatia uses, is considered to be the main culprit. Therefore, the main research question is how much is Victor D’Hondt at fault? The answer will be derived out of a simulation based on the actual parliamentary election results from 2000 to 2016 and a comparison of results of the elections using D’Hondt method with the Sainte-Laguë and modified Sainte-Laguë methods of transferring votes into seats, the two methods considered to be the most proportional. Also, another thing that was run through the simulation using the same election results was the possibility of the employment of an at-large system and the consideration of the effects of such a system. After pointing out the results of the simulations and considering the Gallagher index of disproportionality, the conclusion is that the need to switch to another system of transferring votes into seats is not strong enough since the results show only a minimum increase in proportionality. The request for turning Croatia into only one electoral district by using an at-large system has been pointed out as a failure since only two parties would gain seats in the parliament. In conclusion, we present guidelines to changing the electoral system of Croatia, mainly considering redistricting and the advancement of the system of preferential voting.

• Keywords: izbori; izborni sustav; metode pretvaranja glasova u mandate; D'Hondtova metoda; Sainte-Laguëova metoda; hrvatski izborni sustav
• Keywords (english): elections; electoral system; seat allocation; D’Hondt method; Sainte-Laguë method; Croatian electoral system
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:114:437838
• Study programme: Title: Political Science; Study programme type: university; Study level: graduate; Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra politologije (magistar/magistra politologije)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Open access
• Created on: 2017-10-19 11:42:19